Back to Normal

With our mid-2022 River Oaks Market Report heading to the printer this week and to the post office the week following, we take a look back at the year so far.

For that purpose, we thought it would be instructive to see how things turned out following our prediction in an article from a year ago. Did we get it right? And what does it say about the rest of 2022?

In that article, dated 16 August 2021, we posed the question: “If we have already sold more properties in River Oaks by the end of July than we would expect to sell in a full year, what are the prospects for the remainder of 2021? Can the pace continue?”

Our prediction was that the pace would continue, because we anticipated that in 2021 “instead of witnessing one year of sales activity in just seven months, we may be seeing two years of activity in 12.”

And so it was.

On average, total sales in River Oaks for the months August through December 2021 represent 40% of the total annual number of sales. In 2021 that number was 42%. When you add that to the remarkable 83 sales through July 2021 you got a whopping 142 transactions for the year. Total sales volume last year was well over $500 million. (In the past $300 million was considered a strong year.)

In the graph above, you will note that for sales so far in 2022 (and we are including sales that are expected to close by the end of July) the numbers are down by 40% over last year. But no need to be glum. In fact, 2022 has been close to normal and, if anything, slightly above average.

So, what is our prediction for the rest of 2022? Well, if the River Oaks market performs as it would normally (that’s a risky word to use), then we can expect sales for the year to total around 85. However, we are not confident that this will be the case.

It’s not that there aren’t any buyers out there looking for a decent house at a fair price. Of greater concern is that the inventory is stalling. In simple terms, there may not be enough sellers.